Heavy Hand
The Iranian State used the security machinery, militia and bullets to put down the recent protests and in some ways they succeeded, in the short term.
However, the situation in the medium to longer term is not so rosy, the very legitimacy of Iran’s theocracy has been shown to be a sham, only held together by the use of force.
So we should expect more protests and more revolutions in the Middle East, when conditions permit.
These protests were just the first step in overthrowing the brutal regime in Tehran, and that must be the work of the people of Iran, and only they can truly succeeded.
Marg bar coupe d’état.
Update: The BBC has a more considered and rather conservative view.
UPI see Ahmadinejad faces post-protest troubles.
Reuters highlights Iran bans Mousavi ally from leaving the country.
AP finds the dictatorship true to form, Dozens of journalists among jailed in Iran
ModernityBlog 
“These protests were just the first step in overthrowing the brutal regime in Tehran, and that must be the work of the people of Iran, and only they can truly succeeded.”
Very well put. The regime’s initial clampdown following Khamenei’s sermon has apparently succeeded. But this is temporary. As you indicated, what was left of the IRI’s legitimacy before June 12th is now damaged beyond repair. The uprising will need to transition to a different phase and adopt new strategies. Simply filling the streets will not work because the regime is simply too efficient at violently controlling the streets. General strikes are more like it. Above all, organization and leadership more suited to the task than Mousavi’s campaign edifice is sorely needed.
ganselmi
27/06/2009 at 15:04
agreed, I wouldn’t dream of telling Iranians what to do, they’ve proved themselves smart enough with twitter, etc but unless you can hit the govt and the security apparatus all at once, then they will use their might selectively against you.
I think strikes are the way to go.
modernityblog
27/06/2009 at 15:40
There are two key industrial sectors which, if shut down, would quickly cripple the regime. One is the oil industry. But oil field operations are heavily dominated by the IRGC. So it would be very difficult to mobilize oil workers. The other key sector is the baazaar, the powerful small business owners who are traditional stalwarts of the regime. Recently however, they’ve been very unhappy with the economy. And the information/communication shutdown has hurt business too. The baazaaris could do serious damage if they get angry enough.
By the way, I love the Lincoln quote that serves as the epigraph to your blog.
ganselmi
27/06/2009 at 16:27
re: the quote, ain’t it so true?
modernityblog
27/06/2009 at 17:15
Absolutely: and I’d say so on the basis of my own, albeit ever so limited, personal experience.
ganselmi
27/06/2009 at 17:24