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Archive for January 4th, 2009

Gaza: And Then What.

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Although I have been reading, trying to follow the horrible events in Gaza as they unfold and whilst I do not support this military operation, my objections do not blind me to the absolutely vile nature of Hamas, which is a genocidal antisemitic bunch of thugs and murderers. Hamas care not on jot for the Palestinians and would murder every Israeli Jew if they could, civilian or otherwise.

So we shouldn’t have any illusions about the nature of Hamas or their intent, still it is worthwhile thinking about what happens next and the New York Times makes sense of it:

“…But Israel’s attacks also could fail outright, and history suggests that as the more likely scenario, Middle East experts across the political spectrum said.

The strikes — and the Arab anger over scenes of death and destruction — have highlighted divisions in the Middle East that can prevent Arab nations from working with Israel.

Of course, Egypt, whose peace treaty with Israel is anathema to militants in the Middle East, kept its border to Gaza largely shut last week, and its president, Hosni Mubarak, quarreled openly with the leader of Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed militant Shiite group that now shares power in Lebanon. And at a meeting of the Arab League, Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister gently and indirectly rebuked Hamas for provoking the conflict. Those actions were in line with Israeli dreams. But the attacks also subjected the regimes in Egypt and other moderate Arab nations to blistering scorn from inflamed Arab populations.

And that widened the rifts between rulers and citizens in countries nominally allied with the United States and willing to deal with Israel. The longer this goes on, the more likely it is that regional tensions will intensify. The images of carnage could fuel new hatreds and radicalize some who felt that peace talks offer more hope than resistance.

In some ways, the Gaza attacks were reminiscent of the gamble Israel took, and largely lost, in Lebanon in 1982. It invaded to eliminate the threat of Yasir Arafat’s forces, which were then encamped on its northern border. It accomplished that goal, driving Mr. Arafat into exile in Tunis, and eventually he recognized Israel and negotiated. But in the meantime, a new and virulently anti-Israel threat was born in Lebanon in the form of Hezbollah. Israel’s northern border remained insecure, and Iran’s influence grew.”

(H/T: Shmuel)

Written by modernityblog

04/01/2009 at 05:04

Posted in Uncategorized